As with many of my other contributions to SIAM News, the article “It’s Not the Heat, It’s the Rate: Rate-Inducted Tipping’s Relation to Climate Change” includes some mathematical equations, but I’ve tried to write the piece so you can understand it even if you gloss over that part. And this article in particular has some important concepts relating to the biggest issue facing humanity today: climate change.
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It’s Not the Heat, It’s the Rate
Rate-Inducted Tipping’s Relation to Climate Change
For SIAM News:
For many years, scientists have warned that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—the thermal cycle that drives currents in the Atlantic Ocean—is getting weaker . Among other effects, the AMOC carries warm water to Ireland and the U.K. and returns cooler water from the north to southern regions. Instability in this circulation cycle could result in its complete collapse and cause widespread disruptions in temperature, changes in rain and snowfall patterns, and other natural disasters.
The potential loss of the AMOC represents a possible tipping point due to human-driven climate change. Global increases in temperature lead to warmer ocean water and melting polar ice, both of which decrease water density (see Figure 1). The subsequent lower-density water does not sink as much as it cools, thus disrupting the thermal cycle. When the AMOC collapsed in the prehistoric past, it jolted Earth’s climate and affected every ecosystem.